🔗 Share this article

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that a framework for a ceasefire agreement negotiated with American diplomats are poised to be finalised in a matter of days. Afterward, U.S. representatives will submit the documentation to the Kremlin.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Significant Progress, But Key Hurdles Remain

Following extensive talks in Berlin, US officials reported on Monday that around “90%” of the disputed points between Moscow and Kyiv had been resolved. Although the outlook appears positive, the path to ending the conflict is not guaranteed, particularly because Russia's lack of participation from the current dialogue.

In the early hours of Tuesday, the Ukrainian president said that the US Congress was anticipated to vote on defense assurances and that a complete package of documents could be prepared “today or tomorrow.” Subsequently, the U.S. would hold consultations with Russian representatives, leading to summit-level talks as soon as this weekend.

Defense Assurances and International Support

“The plan involves five key agreements. Several concern security guarantees: formally ratified, that is, approved and endorsed by the United States Congress,” the president remarked to journalists. He stated that these guarantees would “reflect article 5” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

On Monday, American representatives declined to give precise information regarding the likely contents of the defense package or what would happen if Moscow sought to capture additional territory following an agreement. They did, however, confirm that the U.S. does not intend to deploy troops on the ground in the country.

Leaders from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and several additional European countries issued a joint statement that forces belonging to a “allied coalition” could “help with the regeneration of Ukrainian military capabilities, in securing Ukrainian airspace, and in supporting maritime security, potentially by operating inside its territory.”

They stopped short, however, of proposing these measures would constitute guarantees equivalent to Nato’s article 5. Furthermore, there is little sign that Moscow is near accepting the type of package being negotiated between Washington and Kyiv.

Moscow's Stance and Land Issue

The following day, the Russian government stated it had not received the details of the plans for security assurances. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergei Ryabkov, declared that the country would not agree to troops from NATO member states being stationed in Ukrainian territory “no matter what.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian team and US negotiators remains the territorial question. A key demand involves Ukraine relinquishing the parts of the Donbas it still holds, while Ukraine wants to maintain the current front lines. “Talks continue on the territorial issue. You know, it is one of the key issues. At this point, there is no consensus on it yet,” the president remarked following the Berlin discussions.

The US negotiation team, headed by two senior advisors, has suggested a compromise solution. This framework would see Ukraine pull back, but Russia would not move forward, with the resulting zone established as “an open economic area.” Russia has suggested it could use police and national guard formations instead of the army in such an area, implying it would still seek to maintain authority there.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘free economic zone’ is not under the control of Moscow. Not legally or in practice do we accept the Donbas region – its temporarily occupied part – as belonging to Russia. Categorically,” said President Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Possible Scenarios

It is not clear how the two sides will resolve the territorial issue. Zelenskyy has earlier mentioned that a compromise solution such as a special economic area might be conceivable if the Ukrainian people approved it in a national vote. The critical stumbling block is likely to be when the plans are put to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has given no sign he is prepared to concede on his war aims.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will end up with exactly what we are experiencing on our flight right now – turbulence,” commented the president, making the statement after his plane took off from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will increase sanction pressure and provide us with more weapons if they reject the deal. I think, that would be a reasonable expectation from us to the Americans,” he concluded.