Where Has the Excitement Gone? The Drop of the Goal Scoring
One of the biggest stories of the Premier League this campaign concerns the reduction of goals scored in open-play scenarios and the way teams have been scoring more from set-plays as an alternative.
Looking at goal sources to matchday 11 last season, we see a drop of 39 goals in open play and an increase of 26 from team set-pieces and penalties, giving us 13 less altogether.
Considering overall statistics, the number of shots sides are producing reveal a remarkable 370 fewer in open play than this time last season.
Regardless of the big increase in dead-ball scores, records show a mere two extra attempts generated from them excluding spot-kicks, showing the proficiency clubs have been at devising strategies to convert from dead-ball situations.
Goal Statistics Reveal the Tale
301 total goals scored in 110 matches up to now works out at nearly 2.75 goals per game, which if it continued for all 38 games could be the least for five years, back in 2020-21 (2.69).
However, only under 200 goals scored in open play translates to 1.78 per game and is on course to be the lowest for 16 years, since 2009-10 (1.76 average).
The 2009-10 season is also the unique EPL season to experience scoring more frequently from set-plays excluding penalties than the current rate of 0.77 per game (0.79).
What Clubs Account for This Change?
When it comes to goals scored from open play, Wolverhampton Wanderers have experienced by far the biggest decrease, registering a mere four in 11 games, 10 fewer than at this stage the previous campaign.
Apart from Wolves, the EPL's decline in open-play scoring is predominantly a trend among London clubs, with five of the capital's seven sides recording at least five goals fewer from open-play than the prior season.
In fairness, this is primarily due to their scoring lots of scores at the start of the previous campaign as opposed to their genuine struggle to convert in open play this campaign.
Conversely Man City have recorded the largest rise, with all but one of their 23 goals so far arriving in open-play.
Set-Play Proficiency
Comparing newly promoted sides with the teams that went down they replaced. Play-off winners the Black Cats have netted three extra goals in open play than Southampton did in their opening 11 matches en route to demotion the previous campaign.
Regarding goals scored from set-pieces (excluding penalties), the Gunners and the Blues have seen the most significant jump, with the two clubs making up for the five less goals that they've netted in open play with the same number from set-pieces.
Man United have recorded double the number goals from set-pieces as they achieved in the 11 games last season ahead of the manager assumed control, while the Black Cats once more prove better at scoring than the similar-colored team that went down.
Manchester City don't seem to have got the message about increasing scoring from set-pieces, since they've scored three fewer than the previous campaign, similar to Nottingham Forest, even if this could be because of the change in style they have tried to implement.
General Tendencies
Six teams – the Gunners, the Blues, Fulham, Newcastle, Spurs and the Hammers – have been the current campaign's top trend-setters by netting less scores from open-play and more from set-pieces, while Manchester City stand as the sole team to go against the grain so far by performing the exact opposite.
It will be fascinating to see if teams persist to depend greatly on set-pieces as the season goes on or if they regain their overall inventiveness and start scoring increased totals in open-play also.
