Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the political, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an highly polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in universities but very few elected officials or advocates are willing to participate even with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two articles that strive for impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions range over national emblems, taxes, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has got something to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster must join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
