Keir Starmer's Allies Begin 'Stop Andy Burnham' Campaign to Prevent Mayor's Commons Re-entry

Loyalists of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly kicked off a concerted initiative to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a return to the House of Commons. This move comes after the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has sparked an impending byelection.

Serious Hurdles in the Candidate Selection Procedure

Multiple members on the Labour Party's powerful NEC have reportedly predicted it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection process. This is primarily due to the significant presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are keen to avert any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The Labour party machine is said to have swung into action following the revelation of the MP's planned departure, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the considerable financial cost and political risk of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Last year, he prompted anger within No 10 and among senior ministers when he stated that many MPs had encouraged him to stand for the party leadership.

It has long been believed that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to possibly contest the party leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir arise. However, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against exaggerating the level of any planning, stating he is passionate about his current role and would solely re-enter Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.

Political Landscape and Poll Ratings

Amid opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole prominent Labour figure with consistently positive ratings with the public.

Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, several obstacles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the by-election against competition from Reform and independent candidates, all prior to any possible leadership challenge.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

High-ranking Labour figures have indicated that a "Block Burnham" operation is already in progress, with the party's organisation being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally said that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of potential leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

NEC members have reportedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

A number of insiders also shared concerns about Reform UK potentially win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.

Union Influence and Democratic Concerns

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. It is also possible the committee could impose an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.

Yet, one Burnham ally counselled against assuming the NEC would simply reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.

The unions hold a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently keeping their counsel, sources suggested they would be opposed to anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The constituency in question has a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform is likely to launch a significant campaign, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from independent candidates.

Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the parliamentary party.

The departing MP confirmed he was resigning due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He also remains under a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his involvement in an inappropriate online group.